I read through 'Now is the Time' and was not surprised at the lack of content. In a time of crisis, something has to be done. That's what this piece is...something. It includes a bunch of rambling about things that are going to stop gun violence. From spending money on studies at the CDC on gun violence, to pushing for an assault weapons ban; it contains little that will actually stop the problem. What is the problem? Criminals break laws. So...here is some rambling thoughts that I had while reading it...
...
I will say that adding 1,000 school resource officers, counselors, etc. is one item that could potentially stop something like this from happening. The interesting thing is how it would stop it. If a school had an armed resource officer, he could use his weapon to stop violent acts. Is this different than the schools that are starting to allow teachers to wield concealed weapons with proper training and licensing? No...I imagine either of these are effective. Though, only one is cost effective. We are required to have fire extinguishers in schools to stop fires from killing innocent children. How about we add 'break glass in case of crazed murder' to schools. I hope you make the connection and understand that I do not actually think that guns next to the fire extinguisher is the answer.
...
No excuse...So why didn't he do this 4 years ago? "Finally give the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) a confirmed director: The ATF has not had a confirmed director for six years. There is no excuse for leaving the key agency enforcing gun laws in America without a leader. It is time for Congress to confirm an ATF director."
...
Assault weapons ban...Ahhhh. How I hate the word 'Assault Weapon'. The term has been thrown around, yet most who use it do not understand what they are saying. An assault rifle is a selective fire (selectable among either fully automatic, burst-capable, or, sometimes, semi-automatic modes of operation) rifle that uses an intermediate cartridge and a detachable magazine. I'm not sure what and assault rifle is aside from previous and existing federal and state laws that arbitrarily choose features to define an assault rifle. It seems to be any firearm that is scary to the person using the word assault weapon. Personally, I think an assault weapon would be any weapon used in an assault, but that's probably way to simple.
I'd like to point out that the federal government promoted distributing 'assault weapons' to the public. The .30 caliber, M1 Carbine, certainly meets the definition of assault rifle and surplus M1 Carbines have been provided as donations to help fund the federally created Civilian Marksmanship Program (CMP). It accepts detachable magazines, has bayonet mounts, and may have a folding stock. A truly terrifying weapon of mass violence that has been allowed to help promote marksmanship for years.
The CMP was created by the U.S. Congress as part of the 1903 War Department Appropriations Act. The original purpose was to provide civilians an opportunity to learn and practice marksmanship skills so they would be skilled marksmen if later called on to serve in the U.S. military. Over the years the emphasis of the program shifted to focus on youth development through marksmanship. From 1916 until 1996 the CMP was administered by the U.S. Army.
Title XVI of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1996 (Public Law 104-106, 10 February 1996) created the Corporation for the Promotion of Rifle Practice & Firearms Safety (CPRPFS) to take over administration and promotion of the CMP. The CPRPFS is a tax-exempt non-profit 501(c)(3) corporation that has been Federally chartered by the U.S. Congress, but is not an agency of the U.S. Government (Title 36, United States Code, Section 40701 et seq).
Apart from a donation of surplus .22 and .30 caliber rifles in the Army's inventory to the CMP, the CMP receives no Federal funding.
...
Straw purchases...I guess a slap on the wrist means up to 10 years in federal prison and up to $250k fines. I'm not sure what the explicit law he is looking for. It is against the law to purchase a firearm for another person and lie about it on a Form 4473. No different than lying about mental health illness.
From Obama on 'straw purchases' - "Today, criminals can easily buy guns from unlicensed dealers, or acquire them with the help of so-called “straw purchasers” who pass the required background check to buy guns from licensed dealers. But there is no explicit law against straw purchasing, so straw purchasers and others who traffic guns can often only be prosecuted for paperwork violations. We cannot allow those who help put guns into the hands of criminals to get away with just a slap on the wrist. Congress should close these loopholes with new gun trafficking laws that impose serious penalties for these crimes."
...
I find it interesting that one of the first items mentioned wouldn't have done anything for the unfortunate mass murder at Sandy Hook...
"Require criminal background checks for all gun sales: Right now, federally licensed firearms dealers are required to run background checks on those buying guns, but studies estimate that nearly 40 percent of all gun sales are made by private sellers who are exempt from this requirement. A national survey of inmates found that only 12 percent of those who used a gun in a crime acquired it from a retail store or pawn shop, where a background check should have been run. Congress should pass legislation that goes beyond just closing the “gun show loophole” to require background checks for all firearm sales, with limited, common-sense exceptions for cases like certain transfers between family members and temporary transfers for hunting and sporting purposes."
...
So, what would work? I do not think there is any legislation that would stop gun violence, knife violence, or any other type of violence. I do wish that along with a study and weapons tracing in crimes that have guns associated with them, that we could track a little more data. How about tracking crime that occurs where the perpetrator is receiving state/federal aid?
In the end, the root of the problem stems from two things. Failure of society to instill adequate values to future generations and poor mental health. The only steps that will work starts at the family and include taking an active role in raising the future generations of this country and teaching responsible decisions.
Welcome to the Trailerhood!
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Poor People Murder
If you saw the title, you were probably either immediately
interested in what I had to say or pissed off. Either way, it worked.
So...what do I mean that poor people murder? Am I saying that
people who have more wealth do not commit murder? Well...no. But, sort of.
Yesterday I posted that firearms make you safer. It's the argument that both
2nd Amendment supporters and opponents like to pick and pluck data and prove
their points. The problem? They only pick and pluck data that proves their
points. They fail to acknowledge that mass quantities of data that contradicts
their view and helps their opponents.
After each side picks the data to prove their points, they go to
media outlets that leans towards their views and spray streams of numbers and
poll data that makes everyone on both sides satisfied that they are truly
correct.
At any rate...Now to poor people murdering. The next step to make
some sense of this madness was to find out if there is something that more
closely follows homicide rates. Of course my next question was how wealth
affects homicide rates. All the data is the same data looked at yesterday, with
per capita GDP (from CIA fact book) added to the mix. Again, countries
that I do not have gun availability and homicide rates were thrown
out. So...there are countries missing from the GDP data. If you care, then you
go find the missing information and prove my trends wrong with some amazing
find that will change the average of 152 countries. I'm lazy!
Not surprising, the poorer the country, the higher the homicide
rates. More surprising, for countries with a GDP over $30k, the average
homicide rate was 2.2 per 100,000 residents. Twenty-six countries on my list
had over $30k. The average was skewed by the Bahamas. With a homicide rate of
21.6, 16.2 homicides per 100k ahead of US at 5.4, the average drops to 1.5 per
100k when Bahamas is dropped from the $30k+ upper class. Contrast this to the
'poor' countries with per capita GDP under $30k which average a 12.2 homicide
per 100k.
Here is the per capita GDP vs. homicide rate per 100k
residents.
The only other item I care to look at today is the gun ownership
and how it varies with wealth. I'll make some assumptions that I do not think
are too extreme. I'll go out on a limb with the tree goats and make a
connection that gun ownership is roughly proportional to guns per 100
people. I'll also reach out for that delicious leaf and assume that as per
capita GDP goes up, so does the average wealth of the countries residents.
What I found, is that guns are a luxury item. At least in the
sense that the wealthier the country, the more guns per 100 persons there are.
Again, using my logic from above, wealthy people like guns. Granted, there is
noise in the charts as always, but the trends are there.
Here is per Capita GDP vs. gun availability.
I did find it interesting that the US was 2nd highest out of the
$30k GDP group. Going along with the poor people murder theory, I'm going to
speculate that this could be due to the large quantity of urban inner-city homicides. I looked at a lot of data in the past on urban homicide when we
were stuck living in the suburbs of the 3rd most dangerous metropolitan area in
the US. Memphis if you did not know. At any rate, it showed that urban areas
suck and are typically less safe than suburbs or rural communities. Shocking I know. Maybe I'll dig up the stats again and make some mesmerizing charts.
Last thought. If you want to improve your chances of NOT getting
murdered, here is my advice. Try working harder, make more money and buy more guns. Oh...and
I'd stay away from Honduras, Jamaica and Venezuela if I were you.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
The more guns your country has, the safer you are!
The more guns your country has, the safer you are!
With all the talk of gun control and misrepresentation of statistics, I decided to conduct my own analysis of some data out there on the web. Specifically, I was interested to see what I could find about the correlation of gun ownership or availability in a particular country and compare it to the homicide rates of that country.
I imagined that there would be no correlation, and I would be able to say that gun availability meant nothing. However, I was quite surprised to find that the availability of firearms does in fact make you safer in a particular country. This is especially evident in the countries that had more than 20 guns per 100 residents. In fact, in the 24 countries that had more than 20 guns per 100 residents, in all but one country the homicide rate per 100,000 people was 6.6 or less, with Panama having 19.2. The average homicide rate per 100,000 in these countries was 2.8. The average in the remaining 127 countries that I looked at was 12.0. That means on average, you were over 4 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in a country that had fewer than 20 guns per 100 residents. That's amazing!
The chart below shows the gun availability vs. the homicide rates. The countries are sorted from highest guns per 100 residents to lowest. The trending analysis was pretty much irrelevant and at most could be said that the homicide rates started lower and tapered off around 16.7.
The next chart flips the numbers around. Countries were sorted from highest homicide rates to lowest and gun availability trend shown. This better demonstrates that lower guns per person does not necessarily mean a higher gun rate. But the trend is the same.
And finally, homicides in ascending order. Same as above from least to most homicides.
I have included the data below for you to see for yourself. I took the numbers from the two sources and merged them. Any countries that had data missing from UNODC was omitted. UK was averaged due to the way gun data was counted. Any countries that were not included on both lists or that was named differently and I was too lazy to match them (it's getting late), were also omitted. Argue all you want about the Wiki gun data, but looking at the list, I'd say it's probably pretty close if not in actual numbers at least in rankings.
With all the talk of gun control and misrepresentation of statistics, I decided to conduct my own analysis of some data out there on the web. Specifically, I was interested to see what I could find about the correlation of gun ownership or availability in a particular country and compare it to the homicide rates of that country.
I imagined that there would be no correlation, and I would be able to say that gun availability meant nothing. However, I was quite surprised to find that the availability of firearms does in fact make you safer in a particular country. This is especially evident in the countries that had more than 20 guns per 100 residents. In fact, in the 24 countries that had more than 20 guns per 100 residents, in all but one country the homicide rate per 100,000 people was 6.6 or less, with Panama having 19.2. The average homicide rate per 100,000 in these countries was 2.8. The average in the remaining 127 countries that I looked at was 12.0. That means on average, you were over 4 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in a country that had fewer than 20 guns per 100 residents. That's amazing!
The chart below shows the gun availability vs. the homicide rates. The countries are sorted from highest guns per 100 residents to lowest. The trending analysis was pretty much irrelevant and at most could be said that the homicide rates started lower and tapered off around 16.7.
The next chart flips the numbers around. Countries were sorted from highest homicide rates to lowest and gun availability trend shown. This better demonstrates that lower guns per person does not necessarily mean a higher gun rate. But the trend is the same.
And finally, homicides in ascending order. Same as above from least to most homicides.
I have included the data below for you to see for yourself. I took the numbers from the two sources and merged them. Any countries that had data missing from UNODC was omitted. UK was averaged due to the way gun data was counted. Any countries that were not included on both lists or that was named differently and I was too lazy to match them (it's getting late), were also omitted. Argue all you want about the Wiki gun data, but looking at the list, I'd say it's probably pretty close if not in actual numbers at least in rankings.
Country
|
Guns per 100 residents (2007)
|
Homicide per 100,000 (2008)
|
Homicide ranking
|
Guns ranking
|
United States
|
88.8
|
5.4
|
77
|
1
|
Serbia
|
58.2
|
1.4
|
121
|
2
|
Yemen
|
54.8
|
3.9
|
82
|
3
|
Switzerland
|
45.7
|
0.7
|
143
|
4
|
Cyprus
|
36.4
|
0.8
|
142
|
5
|
Iraq
|
34.2
|
2.0
|
107
|
6
|
Finland
|
32
|
2.5
|
99
|
7
|
Uruguay
|
31.8
|
6.6
|
68
|
8
|
Sweden
|
31.6
|
0.9
|
140
|
9
|
Norway
|
31.3
|
0.7
|
144
|
10
|
France
|
31.2
|
1.4
|
123
|
11
|
Canada
|
30.8
|
1.8
|
110
|
12
|
Austria
|
30.4
|
0.5
|
147
|
13
|
Iceland
|
30.3
|
0.0
|
151
|
14
|
Germany
|
30.3
|
0.9
|
141
|
15
|
Oman
|
25.5
|
0.7
|
145
|
16
|
Bahrain
|
24.8
|
0.6
|
146
|
17
|
Kuwait
|
24.8
|
2.2
|
105
|
18
|
Montenegro
|
23.1
|
3.7
|
86
|
19
|
New Zealand
|
22.6
|
1.2
|
126
|
20
|
Greece
|
22.5
|
1.2
|
125
|
21
|
Croatia
|
21.7
|
1.6
|
115
|
22
|
Panama
|
21.7
|
19.2
|
29
|
23
|
Lebanon
|
21
|
6.0
|
71
|
24
|
Equatorial Guinea
|
19.9
|
20.7
|
25
|
25
|
Qatar
|
19.2
|
0.9
|
139
|
26
|
Latvia
|
19
|
4.4
|
81
|
27
|
Peru
|
18.8
|
11.7
|
48
|
28
|
Bosnia and Herzegovina
|
17.3
|
1.7
|
112
|
29
|
Angola
|
17.3
|
19.0
|
30
|
30
|
Belgium
|
17.2
|
1.9
|
109
|
31
|
Paraguay
|
17
|
15.1
|
37
|
32
|
Czech Republic
|
16.3
|
1.9
|
108
|
33
|
Thailand
|
15.6
|
5.8
|
74
|
34
|
Libya
|
15.5
|
2.9
|
95
|
35
|
Luxembourg
|
15.3
|
2.5
|
100
|
36
|
Australia
|
15
|
1.2
|
127
|
37
|
Mexico
|
15
|
12.7
|
45
|
38
|
Mauritius
|
14.7
|
3.7
|
84
|
39
|
Guyana
|
14.6
|
21.0
|
24
|
40
|
Gabon
|
14
|
13.8
|
42
|
41
|
Slovenia
|
13.5
|
0.5
|
149
|
42
|
Suriname
|
13.4
|
8.3
|
58
|
43
|
Guatemala
|
13.1
|
46.0
|
5
|
44
|
South Africa
|
12.7
|
36.8
|
8
|
45
|
Armenia
|
12.5
|
2.7
|
97
|
46
|
Turkey
|
12.5
|
3.3
|
91
|
47
|
Denmark
|
12
|
1.0
|
137
|
48
|
Italy
|
11.9
|
1.0
|
134
|
49
|
Malta
|
11.9
|
1.4
|
120
|
50
|
Pakistan
|
11.6
|
7.2
|
66
|
51
|
UK - averaged guns/100
|
11.2
|
1.3
|
124
|
52
|
Chile
|
10.7
|
3.5
|
87
|
53
|
Venezuela
|
10.7
|
52.0
|
3
|
54
|
Spain
|
10.4
|
0.9
|
138
|
55
|
Argentina
|
10.2
|
5.8
|
75
|
56
|
Belize
|
10
|
34.4
|
12
|
57
|
Costa Rica
|
9.9
|
11.3
|
50
|
58
|
Estonia
|
9.2
|
6.3
|
70
|
59
|
Somalia
|
9.1
|
1.5
|
117
|
60
|
Russia
|
8.9
|
11.6
|
49
|
61
|
Zambia
|
8.9
|
38.0
|
7
|
62
|
Ireland
|
8.6
|
1.1
|
130
|
63
|
Albania
|
8.6
|
2.9
|
94
|
64
|
Portugal
|
8.5
|
1.2
|
129
|
65
|
Slovakia
|
8.3
|
1.7
|
113
|
66
|
Jamaica
|
8.1
|
59.5
|
2
|
67
|
Brazil
|
8
|
22.8
|
19
|
68
|
Barbados
|
7.8
|
8.5
|
57
|
69
|
Nicaragua
|
7.7
|
13.1
|
43
|
70
|
Algeria
|
7.6
|
1.5
|
118
|
71
|
Israel
|
7.3
|
2.3
|
102
|
72
|
Belarus
|
7.3
|
5.6
|
76
|
73
|
Georgia
|
7.3
|
6.0
|
72
|
74
|
Ukraine
|
6.6
|
5.9
|
73
|
75
|
Maldives
|
6.5
|
1.6
|
114
|
76
|
Kenya
|
6.4
|
20.1
|
27
|
77
|
Bulgaria
|
6.2
|
2.3
|
104
|
78
|
Honduras
|
6.2
|
61.3
|
1
|
79
|
Colombia
|
5.9
|
35.9
|
11
|
80
|
El Salvador
|
5.8
|
51.9
|
4
|
81
|
Hungary
|
5.5
|
1.5
|
119
|
82
|
Sudan
|
5.5
|
24.2
|
18
|
83
|
Bahamas
|
5.3
|
21.6
|
23
|
84
|
Dominican Republic
|
5.1
|
24.8
|
17
|
85
|
Morocco
|
5
|
1.4
|
122
|
86
|
China
|
4.9
|
1.1
|
132
|
87
|
Cuba
|
4.8
|
4.6
|
80
|
88
|
Philippines
|
4.7
|
6.5
|
69
|
89
|
Afghanistan
|
4.6
|
2.4
|
101
|
90
|
Taiwan
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
88
|
91
|
Zimbabwe
|
4.6
|
14.3
|
41
|
92
|
India
|
4.2
|
3.4
|
89
|
93
|
Netherlands
|
3.9
|
1.1
|
133
|
94
|
Syria
|
3.9
|
2.7
|
98
|
95
|
Bhutan
|
3.5
|
1.0
|
136
|
96
|
Egypt
|
3.5
|
1.0
|
135
|
97
|
Azerbaijan
|
3.5
|
2.1
|
106
|
98
|
Djibouti
|
2.8
|
3.4
|
90
|
99
|
Bolivia
|
2.8
|
7.5
|
64
|
100
|
Cameroon
|
2.8
|
19.7
|
28
|
101
|
Congo
|
2.7
|
30.8
|
14
|
102
|
Lesotho
|
2.7
|
33.0
|
13
|
103
|
Senegal
|
2
|
8.7
|
56
|
104
|
Mongolia
|
1.9
|
7.9
|
63
|
105
|
Comoros
|
1.8
|
12.2
|
47
|
106
|
Vietnam
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
116
|
107
|
Liberia
|
1.6
|
10.1
|
54
|
108
|
Mauritania
|
1.6
|
14.7
|
40
|
109
|
Guinea-Bissau
|
1.6
|
20.2
|
26
|
110
|
Trinidad and Tobago
|
1.6
|
41.1
|
6
|
111
|
Uzbekistan
|
1.5
|
3.1
|
93
|
112
|
Sri Lanka
|
1.5
|
7.3
|
65
|
113
|
Nigeria
|
1.5
|
12.2
|
46
|
114
|
Benin
|
1.4
|
15.1
|
38
|
115
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo
|
1.4
|
21.7
|
22
|
116
|
Uganda
|
1.4
|
36.3
|
9
|
117
|
Poland
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
128
|
118
|
Kazakhstan
|
1.3
|
10.7
|
53
|
119
|
Ecuador
|
1.3
|
18.5
|
31
|
120
|
Laos
|
1.2
|
4.6
|
79
|
121
|
Papua New Guinea
|
1.2
|
13.0
|
44
|
122
|
Burundi
|
1.2
|
21.7
|
21
|
123
|
Guinea
|
1.2
|
22.5
|
20
|
124
|
Mali
|
1.1
|
8.0
|
62
|
125
|
Chad
|
1.1
|
15.8
|
35
|
126
|
Burkina Faso
|
1.1
|
18.0
|
32
|
127
|
Tajikistan
|
1
|
1.8
|
111
|
128
|
Togo
|
1
|
10.9
|
51
|
129
|
Central African Republic
|
1
|
29.3
|
15
|
130
|
Kyrgyzstan
|
0.9
|
8.0
|
61
|
131
|
Nepal
|
0.8
|
3.2
|
92
|
132
|
Madagascar
|
0.8
|
8.1
|
59
|
133
|
Gambia
|
0.8
|
10.8
|
52
|
134
|
Romania
|
0.7
|
2.3
|
103
|
135
|
Niger
|
0.7
|
3.8
|
83
|
136
|
Lithuania
|
0.7
|
8.9
|
55
|
137
|
Malawi
|
0.7
|
36.0
|
10
|
138
|
Japan
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
148
|
139
|
Haiti
|
0.6
|
5.0
|
78
|
140
|
Sierra Leone
|
0.6
|
14.9
|
39
|
141
|
Rwanda
|
0.6
|
17.1
|
34
|
142
|
Singapore
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
150
|
143
|
Bangladesh
|
0.5
|
2.8
|
96
|
144
|
Indonesia
|
0.5
|
8.1
|
60
|
145
|
Eritrea
|
0.5
|
17.8
|
33
|
146
|
Solomon Islands
|
0.4
|
3.7
|
85
|
147
|
Ghana
|
0.4
|
15.7
|
36
|
148
|
Ethiopia
|
0.4
|
25.5
|
16
|
149
|
Timor-Leste
|
0.3
|
6.9
|
67
|
150
|
Tunisia
|
0.1
|
1.1
|
131
|
151
|
Data for homicide from
UNODC...
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/homicide.html |
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Data for guns from Wikipedia...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country |
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