With all the talk of gun control and misrepresentation of statistics, I decided to conduct my own analysis of some data out there on the web. Specifically, I was interested to see what I could find about the correlation of gun ownership or availability in a particular country and compare it to the homicide rates of that country.
I imagined that there would be no correlation, and I would be able to say that gun availability meant nothing. However, I was quite surprised to find that the availability of firearms does in fact make you safer in a particular country. This is especially evident in the countries that had more than 20 guns per 100 residents. In fact, in the 24 countries that had more than 20 guns per 100 residents, in all but one country the homicide rate per 100,000 people was 6.6 or less, with Panama having 19.2. The average homicide rate per 100,000 in these countries was 2.8. The average in the remaining 127 countries that I looked at was 12.0. That means on average, you were over 4 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in a country that had fewer than 20 guns per 100 residents. That's amazing!
The chart below shows the gun availability vs. the homicide rates. The countries are sorted from highest guns per 100 residents to lowest. The trending analysis was pretty much irrelevant and at most could be said that the homicide rates started lower and tapered off around 16.7.
The next chart flips the numbers around. Countries were sorted from highest homicide rates to lowest and gun availability trend shown. This better demonstrates that lower guns per person does not necessarily mean a higher gun rate. But the trend is the same.
And finally, homicides in ascending order. Same as above from least to most homicides.
I have included the data below for you to see for yourself. I took the numbers from the two sources and merged them. Any countries that had data missing from UNODC was omitted. UK was averaged due to the way gun data was counted. Any countries that were not included on both lists or that was named differently and I was too lazy to match them (it's getting late), were also omitted. Argue all you want about the Wiki gun data, but looking at the list, I'd say it's probably pretty close if not in actual numbers at least in rankings.
Country
|
Guns per 100 residents (2007)
|
Homicide per 100,000 (2008)
|
Homicide ranking
|
Guns ranking
|
United States
|
88.8
|
5.4
|
77
|
1
|
Serbia
|
58.2
|
1.4
|
121
|
2
|
Yemen
|
54.8
|
3.9
|
82
|
3
|
Switzerland
|
45.7
|
0.7
|
143
|
4
|
Cyprus
|
36.4
|
0.8
|
142
|
5
|
Iraq
|
34.2
|
2.0
|
107
|
6
|
Finland
|
32
|
2.5
|
99
|
7
|
Uruguay
|
31.8
|
6.6
|
68
|
8
|
Sweden
|
31.6
|
0.9
|
140
|
9
|
Norway
|
31.3
|
0.7
|
144
|
10
|
France
|
31.2
|
1.4
|
123
|
11
|
Canada
|
30.8
|
1.8
|
110
|
12
|
Austria
|
30.4
|
0.5
|
147
|
13
|
Iceland
|
30.3
|
0.0
|
151
|
14
|
Germany
|
30.3
|
0.9
|
141
|
15
|
Oman
|
25.5
|
0.7
|
145
|
16
|
Bahrain
|
24.8
|
0.6
|
146
|
17
|
Kuwait
|
24.8
|
2.2
|
105
|
18
|
Montenegro
|
23.1
|
3.7
|
86
|
19
|
New Zealand
|
22.6
|
1.2
|
126
|
20
|
Greece
|
22.5
|
1.2
|
125
|
21
|
Croatia
|
21.7
|
1.6
|
115
|
22
|
Panama
|
21.7
|
19.2
|
29
|
23
|
Lebanon
|
21
|
6.0
|
71
|
24
|
Equatorial Guinea
|
19.9
|
20.7
|
25
|
25
|
Qatar
|
19.2
|
0.9
|
139
|
26
|
Latvia
|
19
|
4.4
|
81
|
27
|
Peru
|
18.8
|
11.7
|
48
|
28
|
Bosnia and Herzegovina
|
17.3
|
1.7
|
112
|
29
|
Angola
|
17.3
|
19.0
|
30
|
30
|
Belgium
|
17.2
|
1.9
|
109
|
31
|
Paraguay
|
17
|
15.1
|
37
|
32
|
Czech Republic
|
16.3
|
1.9
|
108
|
33
|
Thailand
|
15.6
|
5.8
|
74
|
34
|
Libya
|
15.5
|
2.9
|
95
|
35
|
Luxembourg
|
15.3
|
2.5
|
100
|
36
|
Australia
|
15
|
1.2
|
127
|
37
|
Mexico
|
15
|
12.7
|
45
|
38
|
Mauritius
|
14.7
|
3.7
|
84
|
39
|
Guyana
|
14.6
|
21.0
|
24
|
40
|
Gabon
|
14
|
13.8
|
42
|
41
|
Slovenia
|
13.5
|
0.5
|
149
|
42
|
Suriname
|
13.4
|
8.3
|
58
|
43
|
Guatemala
|
13.1
|
46.0
|
5
|
44
|
South Africa
|
12.7
|
36.8
|
8
|
45
|
Armenia
|
12.5
|
2.7
|
97
|
46
|
Turkey
|
12.5
|
3.3
|
91
|
47
|
Denmark
|
12
|
1.0
|
137
|
48
|
Italy
|
11.9
|
1.0
|
134
|
49
|
Malta
|
11.9
|
1.4
|
120
|
50
|
Pakistan
|
11.6
|
7.2
|
66
|
51
|
UK - averaged guns/100
|
11.2
|
1.3
|
124
|
52
|
Chile
|
10.7
|
3.5
|
87
|
53
|
Venezuela
|
10.7
|
52.0
|
3
|
54
|
Spain
|
10.4
|
0.9
|
138
|
55
|
Argentina
|
10.2
|
5.8
|
75
|
56
|
Belize
|
10
|
34.4
|
12
|
57
|
Costa Rica
|
9.9
|
11.3
|
50
|
58
|
Estonia
|
9.2
|
6.3
|
70
|
59
|
Somalia
|
9.1
|
1.5
|
117
|
60
|
Russia
|
8.9
|
11.6
|
49
|
61
|
Zambia
|
8.9
|
38.0
|
7
|
62
|
Ireland
|
8.6
|
1.1
|
130
|
63
|
Albania
|
8.6
|
2.9
|
94
|
64
|
Portugal
|
8.5
|
1.2
|
129
|
65
|
Slovakia
|
8.3
|
1.7
|
113
|
66
|
Jamaica
|
8.1
|
59.5
|
2
|
67
|
Brazil
|
8
|
22.8
|
19
|
68
|
Barbados
|
7.8
|
8.5
|
57
|
69
|
Nicaragua
|
7.7
|
13.1
|
43
|
70
|
Algeria
|
7.6
|
1.5
|
118
|
71
|
Israel
|
7.3
|
2.3
|
102
|
72
|
Belarus
|
7.3
|
5.6
|
76
|
73
|
Georgia
|
7.3
|
6.0
|
72
|
74
|
Ukraine
|
6.6
|
5.9
|
73
|
75
|
Maldives
|
6.5
|
1.6
|
114
|
76
|
Kenya
|
6.4
|
20.1
|
27
|
77
|
Bulgaria
|
6.2
|
2.3
|
104
|
78
|
Honduras
|
6.2
|
61.3
|
1
|
79
|
Colombia
|
5.9
|
35.9
|
11
|
80
|
El Salvador
|
5.8
|
51.9
|
4
|
81
|
Hungary
|
5.5
|
1.5
|
119
|
82
|
Sudan
|
5.5
|
24.2
|
18
|
83
|
Bahamas
|
5.3
|
21.6
|
23
|
84
|
Dominican Republic
|
5.1
|
24.8
|
17
|
85
|
Morocco
|
5
|
1.4
|
122
|
86
|
China
|
4.9
|
1.1
|
132
|
87
|
Cuba
|
4.8
|
4.6
|
80
|
88
|
Philippines
|
4.7
|
6.5
|
69
|
89
|
Afghanistan
|
4.6
|
2.4
|
101
|
90
|
Taiwan
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
88
|
91
|
Zimbabwe
|
4.6
|
14.3
|
41
|
92
|
India
|
4.2
|
3.4
|
89
|
93
|
Netherlands
|
3.9
|
1.1
|
133
|
94
|
Syria
|
3.9
|
2.7
|
98
|
95
|
Bhutan
|
3.5
|
1.0
|
136
|
96
|
Egypt
|
3.5
|
1.0
|
135
|
97
|
Azerbaijan
|
3.5
|
2.1
|
106
|
98
|
Djibouti
|
2.8
|
3.4
|
90
|
99
|
Bolivia
|
2.8
|
7.5
|
64
|
100
|
Cameroon
|
2.8
|
19.7
|
28
|
101
|
Congo
|
2.7
|
30.8
|
14
|
102
|
Lesotho
|
2.7
|
33.0
|
13
|
103
|
Senegal
|
2
|
8.7
|
56
|
104
|
Mongolia
|
1.9
|
7.9
|
63
|
105
|
Comoros
|
1.8
|
12.2
|
47
|
106
|
Vietnam
|
1.7
|
1.6
|
116
|
107
|
Liberia
|
1.6
|
10.1
|
54
|
108
|
Mauritania
|
1.6
|
14.7
|
40
|
109
|
Guinea-Bissau
|
1.6
|
20.2
|
26
|
110
|
Trinidad and Tobago
|
1.6
|
41.1
|
6
|
111
|
Uzbekistan
|
1.5
|
3.1
|
93
|
112
|
Sri Lanka
|
1.5
|
7.3
|
65
|
113
|
Nigeria
|
1.5
|
12.2
|
46
|
114
|
Benin
|
1.4
|
15.1
|
38
|
115
|
Democratic Republic of the Congo
|
1.4
|
21.7
|
22
|
116
|
Uganda
|
1.4
|
36.3
|
9
|
117
|
Poland
|
1.3
|
1.2
|
128
|
118
|
Kazakhstan
|
1.3
|
10.7
|
53
|
119
|
Ecuador
|
1.3
|
18.5
|
31
|
120
|
Laos
|
1.2
|
4.6
|
79
|
121
|
Papua New Guinea
|
1.2
|
13.0
|
44
|
122
|
Burundi
|
1.2
|
21.7
|
21
|
123
|
Guinea
|
1.2
|
22.5
|
20
|
124
|
Mali
|
1.1
|
8.0
|
62
|
125
|
Chad
|
1.1
|
15.8
|
35
|
126
|
Burkina Faso
|
1.1
|
18.0
|
32
|
127
|
Tajikistan
|
1
|
1.8
|
111
|
128
|
Togo
|
1
|
10.9
|
51
|
129
|
Central African Republic
|
1
|
29.3
|
15
|
130
|
Kyrgyzstan
|
0.9
|
8.0
|
61
|
131
|
Nepal
|
0.8
|
3.2
|
92
|
132
|
Madagascar
|
0.8
|
8.1
|
59
|
133
|
Gambia
|
0.8
|
10.8
|
52
|
134
|
Romania
|
0.7
|
2.3
|
103
|
135
|
Niger
|
0.7
|
3.8
|
83
|
136
|
Lithuania
|
0.7
|
8.9
|
55
|
137
|
Malawi
|
0.7
|
36.0
|
10
|
138
|
Japan
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
148
|
139
|
Haiti
|
0.6
|
5.0
|
78
|
140
|
Sierra Leone
|
0.6
|
14.9
|
39
|
141
|
Rwanda
|
0.6
|
17.1
|
34
|
142
|
Singapore
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
150
|
143
|
Bangladesh
|
0.5
|
2.8
|
96
|
144
|
Indonesia
|
0.5
|
8.1
|
60
|
145
|
Eritrea
|
0.5
|
17.8
|
33
|
146
|
Solomon Islands
|
0.4
|
3.7
|
85
|
147
|
Ghana
|
0.4
|
15.7
|
36
|
148
|
Ethiopia
|
0.4
|
25.5
|
16
|
149
|
Timor-Leste
|
0.3
|
6.9
|
67
|
150
|
Tunisia
|
0.1
|
1.1
|
131
|
151
|
Data for homicide from
UNODC...
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/homicide.html |
||||
Data for guns from Wikipedia...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country |
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